The Ugly Future

It's becoming more and more common for Huffington Posters to talk down their noses at Israel declaring that "time is on our side." We've already discussed what can happen in the future a little bit, either in a humorous way or by quoting those who have crunched the numbers more than we have.

But sure, let's assume that everything goes exactly as the Palestinians expect them to, and in a hundred years the Palestinians outnumber the Israelis by a large margin and yet they are still living under occupation. At this point Palestinian supporters (and some Israelis) declare that Israel will have to be an apartheid state or form a "one state solution," so either way Israel's Jewish character is destroyed. But this is a fallacy of a false choice, because the Palestinian supporters don't think creatively enough.

Though I don't think Israel would just straight up and kill all of the Palestinians, they could potentially expel some of them or all of them to Jordan. Don't say that it is not a possibility, because it has already been discussed in some circles. Before you jump down my throat, don't assume that I am endorsing this potential course of action or saying that it's a good thing. I'm just saying that the Palestinians shouldn't naively assume that Israel will do exactly what they expect all the time, not when they can push back in a big way and solve this problem by brute force.

When you stop and think about it, who could stop Israel from doing this? Jordan? Israel can just conquer them. America? Maybe, but there isn't much that America would actually do to stop them, even if in 100 years the relations between the two countries have grown further apart than they are today. They might even be grateful that the conflict will finally end. The Arab states? They haven't gone to war for the sake of the Palestinians yet (no matter what their propagandists try to say ex post facto), and they won't in this case. Remember that as time goes by Israel is likely to become more powerful and populous, not less. The international community? They are good at talking big but when it comes time to actually put up or shut up they stay home. Just ask the Rwandans and the Darfurians.

Palestinian supporters will no doubt react with shock to this projection. They will declare, "No way! The world wouldn't let that go! They would sanction Israel! That would stop them?" But it wouldn't. How long has the United Nations been sanctioning Iran? Like five years? And North Korea? How has that worked out? And these are nations that don't even produce half the useful technology that Israel does.

So maybe you would say, "Israel wouldn't do that." Either because they are too moral, too cowardly, too weak, or whatever. But I say: An animal (and people are animals) are at their most vicious when pushed into a corner. If given the choice between mass expulsion, getting sanctioned to death for being an apartheid state (though even this is questionable), or committing national suicide, no Israeli leader is going to pick the option that results in the destruction of his state. That's just how it is, no matter how much we all might not like it. The Palestinians can't really be surprised that when they push Israel Israel will push them back. That's been their excuse for political violence for years.

Again, I'm not saying that this would be good or that I am in favor of this course of action. What I am saying is that these Palestinian leaders and supporters are being incredibly short sighted by thinking that they can dictate the direction the future will go. They are also being blind to other possibilities besides their worn out apartheid/one state dichotomy. And their foolishness will screw the region up more than America ever could.